A public budget is only as good as its real-world implementation. Budget credibility measures whether a government accurately and consistently meets its revenue and spending targets during the fiscal year. When actual spending changes from the approved plan, it directly impacts the delivery of essential public services like healthcare, water, and agriculture that vulnerable communities rely on most. Our research at Bajeti Hub reveals a sharp disconnect in Kenya between budget planning and actual execution. While frameworks exist for citizens to participate during the early approval stages, public oversight drops to near-zero during budget implementation, which is exactly where most spending deviations and underspending happen.
This lack of execution tracking heavily affects development and capital projects. In lower-middle-income countries like Kenya, national budgets are underspent by an average of nearly 13 percent, a challenge worsened by the frequent introduction of multiple mid-year Supplementary Budgets that alter original promises. True accountability requires looking beyond the numbers to the non-financial side of the budget, ensuring that physical progress-like the number of completed water projects-actually matches the money spent. While government ministries and counties bear primary responsibility, the legislature must also better scrutinize budgets before approval and ensure cash flow schedules are strictly followed. Ultimately, fixing budget credibility is at the heart of achieving Sustainable Development Goal 16, which aims to build truly effective, accountable, and inclusive public institutions.
